Photo via Pandithnews.com.

While the NFL may have 99 problems, it appears the refs ain’t one, according to one sports economist, David Berri.  Berri recently chatted with The Atlantic about this topic and how it relates to the NFL’s business overall.  Berri’s authored books, suggesting he knows a thing or two about this kind of stuff, and believes the latest debacle by the refs will not change much, if anything at all, when it comes to settling the dispute between the NFL and the refs’ union.

Disclosure: I’ve never heard of Berri prior to reading this article.  But I decided to write about this because he has an interesting take on the topic.  And needless to say, one that I disagree with.

Here’s some of what was said:

Set the scene. What’s this whole NFL referee lockout about?

The refs are looking for more money and security, and the NFL is saying: ‘We don’t think you’re that important. We don’t think you’re irreplaceable.

Last night’s game sure made them look irreplaceable.

Well, I’m a Detroit Lions fan. I thought last night’s call was just great.

I’m sure Minnesota Vikings fans agree. But in all seriousness…

In all seriousness, if I’m the NFL, I’m thinking: ‘Well, clearly these guys ain’t so good. But maybe over time they’ll get better.’ If they do get better, and people get used to them, maybe it will prove that these NFL refs are pretty easy to replace [and] for cheaper.

That response included a whole lot ifs and maybes.  The wait and see approach Berri suggests is risking a lot, especially based on the performance of the replacement refs to-date.  Including preseason games, the replacement refs have been at it for seven weeks.  Instead of seeing improvement week-to-week, things are becoming increasingly worse.  Not only are the players popping off at the officials and their opponents, but coaches are also having a hard time containing their emotions. Also, the argument that the refs will eventually get better is certainly flawed because as the public learns more and more about the replacement refs’ experience, or lack thereof, it further ruins the NFL’s reputation.  Recently it was learned, the Lingerie Football League fired some of the replacement refs because they were unable to perform the job at a competent level.  And yet, we’re supposed to accept that these guys are capable of officiating at the highest level? The longer the NFL subjects the fans, players, and coaches to the the replacement refs, the NFL will continue to tarnish its brand.  Simply put, it’s not worth it or good for business.

Football’s TV ratings are up so far this year. How important is that statistic?

That [statistic] I think justifies the NFL’s position. It suggests the fans aren’t going to stop watching. They might get angry. But the issue is that fans get angry all the time. Are you still willing to watch or buy the ticket? From the NFL’s perspective, the people who are getting upset are saying, ‘We want you to spend more money even though we’ll watch anyway.’

Even if fans stop watching the NFL on TV, how much would it matter in the short term? The NFL has already signed its rights for the next few years. If ratings fall next week, it’s the networks that get screwed, not the league.

That is very very true, unless there’s a clause in the TV contracts about ratings. But I find it hard to see there would be an effect on the ratings. The refs are going to get some stuff kinda goofy. These people are going to make mistakes and you’re going to get mad at them.

If we’re talking strictly ratings and attendance, these are truths.  If we, the fans, don’t turn the channel or stop attending games in person, the NFL can argue, however weak, that a small subset of fans are displeased.  From the NFL/owners perspective, with numbers up overall, there’s no sense of urgency for them to act.

Let’s leave the ratings argument aside. What about the idea that replacement refs calling a lax game are more likely to lead to player injuries that cost victories. That really would be hitting the owners in their pocketbooks.

Bad refs leading to player injuries is different. If you’re going to harm the product on the field, that’s a problem for the owners [if they buy it].

The product is already being harmed.  Sure, the players are a crucial part of the product on the field, and as long as they’re available the game goes on. But unfortunately, we also learned competent referees play a major role in creating a great product, too.  The game or product is impacted every time the refs make an obvious blunder: marking the ball at the wrong spot, allowing coaches to challenge calls that aren’t allowed, marking the wrong distance on penalties. Not to mention, the mounting frustrations among teams because the replacement refs are either too whistle happy or blind to conspicuous penalties that should be called.  Either way, it’s a lose-lose situation resulting in pent up emotions that boil over during the game via verbal and physical altercations.  With game day adrenaline and aggression running on full, players and coaches will continue to erupt with anger.  With everyone sounding off, it’s clear the players and coaches do not respect the authority of the replacement referees.  The end of the Packers-Seahawks game was total mayhem.  And because every game seems to be more wild and unpredictable than the next, there’s no telling how disorderly things can truly become.  And quite frankly, I’d rather not find out, especially when we’re talking about jeopardizing the safety of others.

Did last night’s game make a deal favorable to the locked-out refs more likely?

I just don’t think it changes anything. If the owners won’t make more money [paying professional refs more money], why pay them more money? If they’re really unique and without them players will get hurt, then you need them. Otherwise, why make a deal?

Here’s why you make a deal. Because as the conclusion of more games are altered by terrible officiating, owners will become enraged.  Goodell and the owners were somewhat let off the hook because the Packers aren’t owned by someone as outspoken as Jerry Jones or as respected as Robert Kraft, instead they have 360,000 shareholders as owners. But had that been the Washington Redskins or Dallas Cowboys, Dan Snyder or Jerry Jones would’ve wasted no time giving Goodell an earful.  Trust.  One of the reasons the NFL is king is because of its 16-game schedule.  With a limited number of games, compared to the MLB, the NBA, and the NHL, teams fight hard for every win, so they can reach the postseason, where the real money is earned. To see a team get blatantly robbed like the Packers were, on the national stage, completely comprises the integrity of the game.  One loss can put your entire season in danger.  If the Packers miss the playoffs, not only will the team lose money, but the city and its business will suffer too. As Aaron Rodgers mentioned, the team recognizes the responsibility they have to deliver year in and year out.  Sports economics isn’t only tied to TV ratings and attendance during the regular season.  The post season is a huge revenue driver as well, especially for small market teams like the Packers.

The owners can continue to play hard ball, but will eventually cave to the refs’ demands.  A bad call here and a bad call there, though not as egregious as the Packers call, can also alter game results causing each teams record to suffer as a result of the ineptitude of the replacement refs.  Money equals power. And right now, the replacement refs have proven they do not deserve the money, power, or the respect they’ve been given.  The owners need to just pay the real officials.  If they don’t pay them now, they’ll definitely pay for it later.

To read the full article, go here.

-@sdotrenee

via The Atlantic

UPDATE:  A deal is close.